TECHNOLOGY AND COMPUTER USAGE TRENDS!
Trends are nothing but changes that take place in various areas of computer technology like hardware, software and application characteristics. There are two areas, the trends of which can affect the design of a computer more are: computer usage and computer technology.Trends in Computer Usage:
Trends in computer usage refer to the trends in software technology. It shows how the programs will use the machine. One of the most important software trends is the increasing amount of memory used by programs and their data. The amount of memory needed by the average program has grown by a factor of 1.5 to 2 per year, which results in improvement of cost per bit.
Another important software trend in the past 20 years has been the replacement of assembly language by high-level languages. This trend has resulted in a great improvement of compilers, which includes compiler optimization, improvements in pipeline behavior and memory system behavior.
TRENDS IN IMPLEMENTATION TECHNOLOGY
Three implementation technologies used commonly for the design of a digital computer, that change at a dramatic pace are:
- Integrated Circuit technology (IC)
- Semiconductor DRAM technology and
- Magnetic Disk technology
Integrated Circuit technology (IC):
In IC technology, transistor density increases by about 50% per year, and the chip size increases in range of 10 to 25% per year.
Semiconductor DRAM technology:
In this memory technology, semi-conductor transistors are packaged in a DRAM cell to store the information and data. Disk density increases by just below 60% per year. But in the past, this technology (DRAM - Dynamic Random Access Memory) has improved faster than logic technology.
Magnetic Disk technology:
In this memory technology, disk density has been improving from 25% to 50% per year. Access time has improved by one-third in 10 years. Since these key technologies change within the span of single product time (2 years of design and 2 years of production) the designer must plan for these changes. Traditionally, cost has decreased very closely to the rate at which density increases.
COST AND TRENDS IN COST
Two major goals to be achieved in the design of a digital computer are: low cost and high performance. The technology has improved a lot to achieve these two goals in the design of a computer. Cost is a major factor that must be considered to make design decisions like whether a new feature should be included in the design.
Cost factors: Time, Volume and Commodization:
Time: Time is a factor that affects the cost of a manufactured computer component. The cost decreases over time even without major improvements in the basic implementation technology.
The underlying principle that drives costs down is the learning curve, which can be measured by the change in yield. Yield is the percentage of manufactured devices that survives the testing procedure.
Volume: Volume is another key factor in determining cost. Increase in volume increases purchasing and manufacturing efficiency and thus reducing the time and cost required for manufacturing. As a rule of thumb, it is estimated that cost decreases about 10% for each doubling of volume.
Commodity: Commodities are products that are sold by multiple vendors in large volumes and are essentially identical. As there are variety of vendors that ship virtually identical products and are high competitive, the gap between the cost and selling price has decreased. As a result, the cost of the computer has also been decreased.
Cost Vs. Price:
Cost refers to the amount of money spent on manufacturing a particular product. There are two types of costs: Direct cost and indirect cost. Cost goes through a number of changes before it becomes price. A small change in the cost may affect the selling price a lot. For e.g., changing the cost by Rs.1000/- may change the price of a product by Rs.3000/- to Rs.4000/-
Volume is a major factor in determining the cost of a product. As volume decreases, cost rises, leading to further increase in price. The difference between cost and price also depend on where in the computer market place a company is selling.
Direct Cost: It refers to the cost that directly relate to making a product. These include labor costs, purchasing components, scrap, and warranty. Direct cost typically adds 20% to 40% to component cost. Warranty cost refers to the cost of systems that fail at the customer’s site during the warranty period.
Indirect Cost (or) Gross Margin: Indirect cost is the cost towards the company’s overhead that can’t be billed directly to one product. It includes the company’s research and development (R&D), marketing, sales, manufacturing equipment maintenance, building rental, taxes etc. The gross margin is typically 20% to 55% of the average selling price of a product.
Average Selling Price (ASP): ASP is the price that includes the cost of the components, direct cost and the gross margin. Manufacturers of low-end PCs generally have lower gross margin because of the lower overhead involved in producing and selling a product. When the company offers the volume discount, it decreases the average selling price to some extent.
List Price: List price is the final product price of the products that are ready to be sold to the retail stores. It adds a percentage of margins as profit to the average selling price (ASP). Depending on the distribution system, the average selling price is typically 50% to 75% of the list price.
